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Of all the game consoles in this book, the mini-SNES is the hardest to open. It doesn t use normal Phillips-head screws to hold the case together. No, that d be too easy! Instead, it uses what I refer to as Nintendo screws. You ve probably noticed them on the backs of NES and SNES cartridges they re rounded, with little notches around the edges. Normal screwdrivers are useless against them!

The results of any prototyping efforts, pilots, proofs of concept, or other fact-finding missions conducted before the review should be summarized to provide some concrete data from the prototyping experiments of the team. The review team should carefully note the assumptions behind such prototyping work and revisit the assumptions to check for violations in the actual architecture of the system.

worst case that these indexes are down by 40 percent on average from their strike prices (the major indexes are down more than 50 percent from their peaks, but Buffett wrote the puts over the past few years) If the indexes rebound by 67 percent over the next 135 years (the average remaining duration of the puts), a mere 39 percent annually, then the puts will expire worthless and Buffett can pocket the entire $49 billion Berkshire s maximum exposure is $371 billion if all four indexes go to zero, but this isn t going to happen, so let s look at more likely scenarios Imagine that the indexes are down 50 percent from the puts average strike price 135 years from now, an additional 17 percent below today s levels This would require Berkshire to pay out $18.

[1] Y V Pleskov, A Y Sakharova, M D Krotova, L L Bouilov and B V Spitzyn: Photoelectrochemical properties of semiconductor diamond, Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry 228, 19 (1987) [2] H B Martin, A Argoitia, J C Angus and U Landau: Voltammetry studies of single-crystal and polycrystalline diamond electrodes, Journal of the Electrochemical Society 146, 2959 (1999) [3] G M Swain, A B Anderson and J C Angus: Applications of diamond thin lms in electrochemistry, MRS Bulletin 23, 56 (1998) [4] W Yang, O Auciello, J E Butler, W Cai, J A Carlisle, J E Gerbi, D M Gruen, T Knickerbocker, T L Lasseter, J N Russell, L M Smith and R J Hamers: DNA-modi ed nanocrystalline diamond thin- lms as stable, biologically active substrates, Nature Materials 1, 253 (2002) [5] Robert A Freitas Jr, Nanomedicine, Volume IIA: Biocompatibility, Landes Bioscience, 2003 [6] M I Landstrass and K V.

5 billion (half of the $37 billion maximum) This would be a painful loss, to be sure, but one that Berkshire could easily afford: The company s earning power today exceeds $10 billion per year and, even factoring in Berkshire s losses this year, its net worth is approximately $100 billion and both gures will be much higher more than a decade from now It s also important to understand that the loss in this doomsday scenario would not be $185 billion minus $49 billion, because Buffett can invest the $49 billion for the entire period If he earns a mere 7 percent return for 135 years, $49 billion becomes $122 billion, making Berkshire s break-even point on this investment a 34 percent decline in the indexes from the point at which the puts were written.

written by Marc PRIEL Laboratoire National de M trologie et d Essais (LNE).

This, in turn, means the indexes would only have to increase less than 1 percent annually over the next 135 years to reach this from today s level (down 40 percent) We believe it s very likely that the indexes will compound in excess of 4 percent annually from today s depressed levels, if only simply from in ation (consider all the money governments around the world are currently printing), retained earnings, and survivorship bias (the indexes remove failing/failed companies every year and replace them with thriving companies) Thus, we think it s unlikely that Berkshire will have to pay out a single dollar on these contracts And given how much Buffett was paid to write them and his ability to invest the premium he was paid in any way he chooses, it s even more unlikely that this will be a losing investment.

In conclusion, even knowing what we know today, we think Buffett was wise to have sold these index puts and we very much.